TY - JOUR
TI - Projections of electricity energy mix changes towards nearly carbon neutrality by 2050
AU - Gvozdenac Dušan D
AU - Gvozdenac-Urošević Branka
AU - Morvaj Zoran K
JN - Thermal Science
PY - 2025
VL - 29
IS - 1
SP - 713
EP - 730
PT - Article
AB - Global electricity consumption reached 28197 TWh in 2022 and it is expected to rise to 64513 TWh by 2050, reflecting estimated annual growth rate of 3%. This paper evaluates ten electricity generation technologies – coal, natural gas, hydro, solar photovoltaic, wind, nuclear, geothermal, biomass, biogas, and wave & tidal – each contributing uniquely to global energy production. Despite notable advancements in clean energy technologies, including renewables and nuclear power, global GHG emissions continue to increase. The focus of this paper is to propose strategies for constructing new power plants while decommissioning old ones to achieve near carbon neutrality by 2050. Various shares of renewable and nuclear energy in total electricity production are modeled. The analysis examines GHG emissions, required capacity for each technology, decommissioning costs of old infrastructure, investment requirements for new plants, and land requirements for their construction. Findings indicate that proposed scenarios are feasible but require more aggressive measures to limit global temperature rise to manageable levels. By simulating diverse strategies, policymakers can better understand potential impacts and make informed decisions regarding necessary changes. Increasing the share of renewable energy, supported by nuclear power, emerges as the primary pathway to achieve carbon neutrality target by 2050. This analysis adopts a global perspective with a transparent model design that allows easy adaptation other contexts.