TY - JOUR
TI - Bivariate and two-phase degradation modeling and reliability analysis with random effects
AU - Sun Li-Jun
AU - Li Hai-Bin
AU - Yuan Xi-Qin
AU - Yan Zai-Zai
JN - Thermal Science
PY - 2024
VL - 28
IS - 3
SP - 2295
EP - 2304
PT - Article
AB - The paper aims at predicting the remaining useful life of highly reliable and  long-life products with multiple and multi-stage characteristics in the  degradation process. Considering the unit-to-unit variability among the  product units, a new bivariate and two-phase Wiener process model with  random effects is established. Schwarz Information Criterion is used to  identify the change points of the degradation model, and the analytical  expressions of life and remaining useful life are given by the concept of  first hitting time. Furthermore, the appropriate Copula function is selected  to describe the correlation between the two quality characteristics based on  Akaike Information Criterion. A bivariate degradation model is established  and the unknown parameters of the model are estimated by Markov Chain Monte  Carlo method. Finally, the applicability and effectiveness of the proposed  method are verified by the comparative analysis of turbine engine.